BLACK MARKET BETTING TO HIT £33BN BY 2028 AS FORECASTS SHOW ONE IN FIVE STAKES COULD GO ILLEGAL

The amount staked with illegal gambling operators in the UK is forecast to almost double by 2028, according to new independent analysis.

Research by H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC) shows black market stakes are expected to surge from £17bn in 2025 to more than £33bn by 2028.

That means almost one fifth (19.2%) of all online betting and gaming stakes could be placed with unsafe, unregulated black market operators within three years.

The Betting and Gaming Council warned the figures underline the growing scale and speed of the illegal gambling market, which operates outside UK rules, pays no tax, and offers none of the safer gambling protections required of licensed operators.

The latest forecasts come as the Gambling Commission prepares to consider proposals for financial risk assessments (FRAs) at its Board meeting on May 21, amid growing concerns that intrusive checks, higher taxes and tighter regulation could drive even more customers away from regulated operators and towards dangerous illegal gambling sites.

Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, said: “These forecasts are a wake-up call. The black market is not a distant threat, it is growing fast, becoming more visible, and attracting billions of pounds in stakes from British customers.

“By 2028, almost one in five pounds staked online could be with illegal operators. These sites pay no UK tax, support no British jobs, and offer none of the protections that exist in the regulated sector.

“The lesson for policymakers is clear. If the regulated market is made less competitive through higher taxes or intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting, they will simply move to the black market.

“As the Gambling Commission considers financial risk assessments, it is vital that any checks are genuinely frictionless and targeted. Any policy that unintentionally drives even more customers towards illegal operators will undermine player safety and damage the regulated sector.

“That is why ministers and regulators must avoid measures that hand an advantage to the black market.”

The regulated betting and gaming sector supports 109,000 jobs, contributes £6.8bn to the economy, generates £4bn in tax each year and provides vital funding for sports, including horseracing.